An agent-based approach to evaluate the impact of economic dismissals facilitation on the French labor market
Gerard Ballot  1, 2@  , Jean-Daniel Kant  3@  , Olivier Goudet  3@  
1 : Université Panthéon-Asssas Paris 2
TEPP-CNRS
2 : Centre de Recherche en Economie et Droit  (CRED)  -  Site web
Université Panthéon-Assas Paris 2
CRED, Université Paris 2, 12 place du Panthéon -  France
3 : Laboratoire d'Informatique de Paris 6  (LIP6)  -  Site web
Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC) - Paris VI, CNRS : UMR7606
4 Place JUSSIEU 75252 PARIS CEDEX 05 -  France

The El Khomri project law (also called « Work » law) has triggered a lot of conflicting judgements among economists. However no model has been used to evaluate its effects ex ante. We have developed a model of the recent French labor market, over the past 10 years, in order to analyse in detail this market and do policy design and analysis. The model integrates the heterogeneity of agents, and their decisions (firms and workers) based on the most recent economic analysis, albeit under bounded rationality, and the many institutions and specially the two main labor contracts, Open-Ended contracts and Fixed Term Contracts. The model simulates the gross flows between inactivity, unemployment and these two types of employment, with a consistent accounting system. The model is calibrated by a powerful algorithm to set 63 parameters to fit more than 64 aggregate real variables. We analyse two important elements of the law project. First the law facilitates the economic dismissals. We find that it favors the young but deteriorates the situation of the others, and especially the seniors, and it deeply transforms the labor market, more precarious OEC crowding out useless FTC. It does not increase employment and can deteriorate it. Second the change of the wage rate bonus over the 35th hour (from 25% to 10%) is modelled, but the slight decrease of the salaries does not lead to a higher employment.



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